The Civil Rights Coalition

Urban Gun Violence is Concentrated in Gang Hotspots

Contrary to the broad term “gun violence,” much of America’s firearm crime is highly concentrated among gangs and street groups in specific urban areas. Research shows that gun violence is remarkably clustered among a small number of high-risk people and places popcenter.asu.edu. For example, in Boston and Minneapolis during the 1990s, nearly two-thirds of youth homicides were gang-related popcenter.asu.edu. These incidents stemmed mostly from gang feuds rather than random violence or ordinary disputes. The problem is geographically focused as well: between 1987 and 1990, half of Chicago’s gang-related homicides occurred in just 10 out of 77 community areas popcenter.asu.edu.

Likewise, in Boston, a few gang-turf neighborhoods (only 3% of the city’s area) accounted for over 25% of youth weapons offenses and homicides popcenter.asu.edu.

This means the typical gun homicide is not occurring everywhere uniformly – it is happening over and over in the same vulnerable neighborhoods and social circles. Criminologists find that a relatively small fraction of individuals are responsible for a large share of gun violence. In one Minneapolis study, about 2,650 people in 32 street gangs – under 3.5% of local youth – were central to the city’s youth gun violence problempopcenter.asu.edu. In city after city, authorities have observed that serious offenders (often gang members with prior records) engage in cyclical retaliatory shootings, sustaining a violent cycle that rarely involves outsiderspopcenter.asu.edu. The data underscore that America’s gun homicide issue is largely a gang and criminal network issue, occurring in concentrated pockets.

Root Causes: Poverty, Lack of Opportunity, and Trauma

The prevalence of gang violence in inner-city areas is deeply tied to underlying social and economic problems. Poverty and lack of opportunity are repeatedly cited as root drivers of crime and gang activity luskin.ucla.edu. Impoverished neighborhoods with high inequality and few job prospects tend to suffer higher rates of gun homicide – circumstances that fuel the formation of gangs and criminal enterprises as alternative means of survival or status. These areas often have deteriorated infrastructures, failing schools, and limited access to social services, creating an environment where violence can thrive. Research also points to factors like family disruption and community disinvestment as contributors popcenter.asu.edu.

In short, where hope and legitimate opportunities are scarce, gang life and violence find room to grow.

Moreover, persistent exposure to violence leads to a mental health crisis in these communities. Residents (especially youth) who witness shootings or lose friends/family to murder often experience trauma and untreated post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and anxiety luskin.ucla.edu. These mental health struggles can manifest as further aggression or involvement in crime – a “constellation of interconnected pathologies” linking violence to future violence luskin.ucla.edu. Gang members themselves are frequently victims of violence, perpetuating a cycle of retaliation and fear. The lack of accessible mental health care in high-violence neighborhoods means trauma goes unaddressed, making conflict resolution and breaking the cycle even harder. Tackling poverty, unemployment, and mental health in these areas is thus critical to reducing gang gun violence in the long run.

Criminal Firearms vs. Law-Abiding Gun Owners

It is important to recognize that law-abiding gun owners are rarely the perpetrators of gun homicides. The vast majority of gun crimes involve illegal firearms possessed by people who cannot legally own them or obtained through illicit means. Studies of youth offenders find that those who commit gun violence overwhelmingly have extensive criminal backgrounds and prior arrests popcenter.asu.edu – indicating they were not “lawful” gun carriers to begin with. In gang-heavy gun homicides, both victims and shooters often have prior involvement in crime and are often already prohibited from possessing guns legally popcenter.asu.edupopcenter.asu.edu. By contrast, individuals with clean records who legally own firearms are seldom involved in street shootings.

Concrete data back this up: according to the ATF’s gun tracing reports, when police recover crime guns, they usually find the weapon has changed hands illegally. In fact, only about 18% of guns used in crimes were still in the possession of their original lawful purchaser at the time of recovery en.wikipedia.org. In other words, over 80% of crime guns had been diverted to unauthorized persons (through theft, straw purchases, black market sales, etc.). This underscores that the typical gun homicide is not committed with a legally owned, responsibly kept firearm, but with a trafficked or stolen gun wielded by someone with criminal intent. Lawful gun owners – who undergo background checks and are generally compliant with gun laws – are not the ones driving gun violence statistics.

Figure: Police evidence markers near a handgun at a crime scene, symbolizing how crime guns are typically found in illicit contexts. Firearm violence in cities often involves illegally possessed weapons used by gang members or felons, rather than guns held by lawful owners. By focusing on gang activity and its root causes, communities can address the core of “gun violence” incidents popcenter.asu.edu en.wikipedia.org.

Think Differently

Exposing the truth behind political propaganda helps clarify that there is no such thing as Gun Violence. It is “gang violence” that is the real problem. Rather than broadly blaming millions of lawful gun owners or focusing only on guns themselves, the data directs us to the concentrated pockets of crime where interventions are most needed. Strategies like gang intervention programs, targeted law enforcement in hot-spot areas, and community investment in impoverished neighborhoods can directly reduce the types of shootings that drive the statistics popcenter.asu.edu luskin.ucla.edu.

By addressing the social ills – poverty, exclusion, trauma – that give rise to gangs, and by getting illegal firearms off the streets, we can make far more progress in reducing gun homicides than sweeping one-size-fits-all gun control measures. In sum, the evidence suggests that solving America’s gun violence crisis requires us to focus on gang violence and its root causes, rather than mischaracterizing it as a problem spread evenly across the population of gun owners.

Gun violence in the United States is a complex problem. A growing body of evidence suggests that the nation’s gun homicide crisis is largely driven by gang-related violence and concentrated in economically disadvantaged urban areas, rather than by lawful gun owners. This report examines key data and trends since 2000, highlighting how most crime guns are obtained illegally, how poverty and untreated trauma fuel youth gang involvement, and how gun homicides are geographically and demographically concentrated. It also scrutinizes how some gun-control advocacy groups frame statistics to advance their political agenda, and contrasts those narratives with counterpoints from pro–Second Amendment perspectives.

Here’s the Data and Research

A critical distinction in the gun debate is how firearms used in crimes are acquired. Research consistently shows that criminals seldom obtain guns through legal retail channels or from lawful gun owners:

• Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) data: A 2016 survey of prison inmates found that fewer than 2% of prisoners who had a gun during their offense purchased it from a retail source (such as a gun store or pawn shop) bjs.ojp.gov. In other words, over 98% did not get their crime gun from a store or other licensed dealer. Only 0.8% obtained their gun at a gun showbjs.ojp.gov, undermining the notion of gun shows as a major source for criminals. Instead, the vast majority of these offenders obtained guns through illegal or informal means – theft, black-market trade, or friends/family transfers bjs.ojp.gov bjs.ojp.gov.
• Illegal market and theft: More than half of criminals in the BJS survey reported getting their firearm via theft, the underground market (“off the street”), or by finding it at the scene of another crime bjs.ojp.gov. About 43% obtained guns from the street/black market, 6% stole the weapon, and 7% picked it up at a crime scene bjs.ojp.gov. Another 25% got guns from friends or family or as gifts bjs.ojp.gov. Only a small minority (around 7%) bought a gun from a licensed dealer under their own name bjs.ojp.gov – a sign that typical law-abiding retail transactions are not the source of guns used in crimes.
• ATF trace data: Federal tracing of guns recovered from crimes aligns with these findings. For example, only about 3% of crime guns traced from 2017–2021 were purchased at gun shows usafacts.orgusafacts.org. Most traced crime guns originated from dealers – but this simply reflects that every firearm begins with a legal sale. Those guns often pass through straw purchasers or theft before ending up in criminal hands. In fact, one analysis concludes 93% of guns used in crimes are obtained through illicit means (not from stores or shows) gunfacts.info.

Table 1: How Imprisoned Criminals Obtained the Firearms Used in Their Crimes (BJS Survey 2016) bjs.ojp.gov bjs.ojp.gov

Source of Gun	Share of Prisoners Who Had a Gun During Offense
Off-street/Underground market or Stolen firearm (illegal sources)	~56% (combined)
Obtained from friend or family (informal transfer/gift)	25%
Purchased from licensed dealer (under own name, with background check)	7%
Purchased via retail but not under own name (straw purchase)	~1% (approx.)
Purchased at a gun show (any source)	<1%

Source: BJS Survey of Prison Inmates 2016 bjs.ojp.gov bjs.ojp.gov. Over 90% of offenders’ guns came from illegal or off-record sources, while retail sources (with background checks) were negligible. 

The data make clear that the perpetrators of gun violence rarely use lawfully obtained firearms. Most guns wielded in street crimes are trafficked or stolen. This suggests that cracking down on legal gun owners or retailers – who already follow laws – may miss the core of the problem, which lies in the illicit gun trade and repeat offenders. Indeed, many high-profile gun-control proposals (like expanded background checks or bans on certain rifles) target the law-abiding marketplace, yet criminals largely operate outside that system.

Poverty, Gangs, and the Drivers of Urban Gun Violence

Gun violence in America is heavily concentrated among youth in urban, economically disadvantaged environments, often manifested as gang-related violence. Poverty, lack of opportunity, and untreated trauma/mental illness are widely recognized as root drivers that push some young people toward gangs and violence:

• Concentrated poverty and social disorganization: Areas of high poverty and joblessness breed conditions for crime. Criminologists note that extreme economic deprivation and neighborhood social disorganization (e.g. persistent poverty, high crime environment, residential instability) are major risk factors for youth gang involvement publicsafety.gc.ca. Young people in impoverished, marginalized communities may see few viable paths to success; gangs fill that void by offering income from illicit activity and a sense of belonging. Public safety analysts have found that youth who join gangs often come from groups suffering the greatest social disadvantage publicsafety.gc.ca publicsafety.gc.ca.
• Family instability and trauma: Many gang-affiliated youths experience childhood adversity such as broken homes, abuse, domestic violence, or having family members in gangs publicsafety.gc.ca publicsafety.gc.ca. These factors can normalize violence or leave young people without support. Chronic exposure to violence and trauma can also contribute to mental health problems (like PTSD, depression, or anxiety) that, when left untreated, increase the likelihood of violent behavior or self-medication via substance abuse mapreventgunviolence.org. According to the Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence, more than 3 million children per year witness violence, and Black and Brown children are far more likely to be exposed – leading to elevated risks of “depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, and substance abuse,” which in turn “perpetuates the conditions that lead to gun violence ”mapreventgunviolence.org. In essence, untreated trauma and mental health challenges in these communities can create a cyclical pattern of violence, as victims may become perpetrators without proper intervention. So why don’t these groups address the root causes?
• Lack of positive opportunities: High-poverty urban neighborhoods often feature underfunded schools, scarce job opportunities, and limited access to youth services. This lack of legitimate avenues for advancement can make gang life more appealing. Gangs offer alternatives – however destructive – such as status, protection, and income via drug trade publicsafety.gc.ca publicsafety.gc.ca. Studies find that youth may be “pushed” into gangs by fear and lack of safety (seeking protection) or “pulled” by the social allure and material gains that gangs seem to provide nationalgangcenter.ojp.gov nationalgangcenter.ojp.gov. Simply put, where communities suffer poverty and neglect, gangs and gun violence thrive as symptoms of those deeper problems mapreventgunviolence.org.
• Mental health and youth violence: While most individuals with mental illness are nonviolent, there is evidence that untreated serious mental illness or behavioral disorders in adolescence can increase risk of violent outcomes in certain cases apa.org. More relevant in the gang context is the concept of collective trauma – whole neighborhoods coping with violence. Constant stress and fear can lead to hypervigilance or aggression as survival mechanisms. When young people do not receive mental health support or see a hopeful future, impulsivity and violent responses become more common. Community leaders often note that many youth carrying guns do so because they do not feel safe in their environment mapreventgunviolence.org. Thus, improving mental health services, mentoring, and conflict-resolution skills for high-risk youth is seen as key to breaking the cycle.

In summary, the profile of gun violence in the U.S. is less about law-abiding citizens snapping, and more about at-risk youth in distressed communities falling into cycles of gang warfare and crime. Addressing these root causes – poverty, lack of education and jobs, exposure to violence, and inadequate mental health care – is widely viewed by experts as essential to reducing gun violence. Even organizations that advocate for stricter gun laws acknowledge that “Gun violence is a symptom of deeper issues: racism, poverty, trauma, and lack of opportunity” in certain communities mapreventgunviolence.org. Any lasting solution, therefore, must go beyond gun hardware and confront these underlying social conditions.

Geographic and Demographic Concentration of Gun Homicides

Gun homicides in America are heavily concentrated in specific locations and among particular demographics. It is not an evenly distributed problem, but rather one largely confined to urban centers, certain neighborhoods, and networks of individuals (gangs). Key data illustrating this concentration:

• A small fraction of places accounts for most murders: Research by the Crime Prevention Research Center found that just 2% of U.S. counties accounted for 56% of the nation’s murders in 2020, while over 50% of counties had zero murders that yearamericas1stfreedom.org americas1stfreedom.org. In fact, the worst 5% of counties (mostly major cities and their cores) saw 73% of murders, whereas the safest 52% of counties (often rural or suburban) had none at allamericas1stfreedom.org americas1stfreedom.org. This stark disparity shows that gun homicide is primarily an urban problem. Even within high-murder counties, violence clusters in small “hot spot” areas. For example, Los Angeles County reported that 10% of its ZIP codes accounted for 41% of murdersamericas1stfreedom.org. Boston offers a similar pattern: over half of all gun violence incidents occur on just 3% of the city’s street segments mapreventgunviolence.org. In other words, a few neighborhoods in big cities drive a huge share of U.S. gun homicides. The average American outside these areas faces a much lower murder risk.
• Gang and repeat offender involvement: Crime analysts and law enforcement officials have long observed that a small number of individuals are responsible for a large proportion of violent crime. Often these are gang members or repeat offenders with prior records. According to the FBI’s National Gang Threat Assessment, gang members are responsible for an average of 48% of violent crime in most jurisdictions, and up to 90% in some hotspots policemag.com. In places like Compton, CA or parts of Chicago, officials estimate the majority of shootings are gang-related policemag.com. Notably, gangs themselves constitute a tiny segment of the populace – less than 1% of the U.S. population (or under 5% in even high-crime cities) – yet they commit a wildly disproportionate share of murders and shootings policemag.com policemag.com. Criminologist David Kennedy summarizes this finding: “homicide and gun violence are overwhelmingly concentrated among serious offenders operating in groups (gangs, drug crews, etc.), representing under half of one percent of a city’s population who commit half to three-quarters of all murders.” ammoland.com. Additionally, many gun homicides involve people with prior criminal records. A recent analysis in Hartford, CT found that 85% of suspects arrested for gun crimes had previous convictions for violent or gun offenses, and a large share were out on bail or probation at the time of the new offense ammoland.com. The victims in these urban shootings often have similar backgrounds ammoland.com. This paints a picture of interpersonal violence among a small cohort of recurring offenders, rather than random attacks on the general public.
• Demographic disparities: The toll of gun homicide falls overwhelmingly on specific demographic groups – young minority males, particularly Black men. Despite making up only about 7% of the U.S. population, Black males comprise over 50% of gun homicide victims in recent years mapreventgunviolence.org. Black Americans (and to a lesser extent Latino Americans) in urban centers suffer the highest firearm murder rates. For context, the Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence reports that Black and Latinx people are less than 20% of Massachusetts’s population but account for ~80% of gun homicide victims in the state mapreventgunviolence.org. Nationally, homicide has been the leading cause of death for Black males in their teens and twenties for decades. Even among children, there is a racial gap: Black children are about 10 times more likely to be killed by a gun than White children mapreventgunviolence.org, reflecting the elevated violence in the neighborhoods many Black youth grow up in. Most of these incidents are not school shootings or isolated accidents, but rather concentrated urban violence (gang conflicts, drive-by shootings, etc.). In fact, a large proportion of juvenile firearm deaths occur among older teens involved in these high-risk environments. One analysis of CDC data found that over 70% of all firearm-related deaths in the 0–17 age group are among 15–17-year-olds – an age strongly associated with gang activity and street violencegetthefacts2026.com. Meanwhile, the actual number of small children (e.g. under age 10) killed by gunfire is comparatively low (fewer than 300 per year, nationwide) and is far eclipsed by other causes like car accidents or drowning getthefacts2026.com.

Table 2: Concentration of U.S. Murders in a Few Urban Counties (2020) americas1stfreedom.org americas1stfreedom.org

County Group (by murder incidence)	% of U.S. Population	% of U.S. Murders
52% of counties (safest half) – mostly rural/suburban, had 0 murders	10%	~0% of murders
Worst 1% of counties (≈31 counties, large cities)	21%	42% of murders
Worst 2% of counties (≈62 counties)	31%	56% of murders
Worst 5% of counties (≈155 counties)	47%	73% of murders

Source: Crime Prevention Research Center analysis of 2020 homicides americas1stfreedom.org americas1stfreedom.org. Gun murders are highly localized: a handful of urban counties – and within them, specific neighborhoods – account for the bulk of violence. 

The above data underscore that America does not have a uniform “nationwide” gun murder problem so much as a concentrated urban violence problem. As the CPRC study concluded, “Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a small set of urban areas – and even in those counties, murders are concentrated in small areas inside them” americas1stfreedom.org. Any effective policy response must therefore focus on those high-risk places and populations – for example, strategies targeting gangs, violent repeat offenders, and the economic blight in specific urban neighborhoods – rather than one-size-fits-all gun bans that affect the whole country. 

It’s also notable that many of the areas with the worst gun violence already have strict gun laws (e.g. cities like Chicago, New York, Baltimore, Los Angeles). Meanwhile, many rural areas with high rates of gun ownership experience very little violent crime. In fact, according to a 2021 Pew survey, legal gun ownership rates in rural households are substantially higher than in urban households (roughly 79% higher) americas1stfreedom.org. Yet those heavily armed rural and suburban communities have far lower murder rates than cities. This suggests that the mere prevalence of guns among law-abiding citizens does not equate to high homicide rates – the key differentiator is the presence of gangs, drug trafficking, and other crime factors in certain urban centers. As one NRA-affiliated analysis put it, “the country’s millions of lawful gun owners are not the problem” when it comes to murderamericas1stfreedom.org. Instead, resources should be directed to where the problem truly lies: the intersection of criminal activity, poverty, and violent subcultures in specific locales.

Debates Over Gun Violence Statistics and Advocacy Narratives

Given these patterns, a contentious point in the public debate is how statistics about gun violence are presented by different groups. Gun-control advocates and gun-rights advocates often emphasize different metrics – sometimes leading to confusion or misinterpretation among the public. It’s important to critically examine some common statistical claims:

• “Gun violence is the leading cause of death for children.” Anti-gun organizations (e.g. Everytown, Giffords, the Massachusetts Coalition, etc.) frequently cite that firearms are now the number one cause of death for American children and teenagers, surpassing car accidents. This claim is technically true for the broad age range typically used (ages 1–19 combined). However, the framing can be misleading without context. Critics point out that these groups lump older teenagers (16–19), who face high risks from gang and criminal violence, in with young children, to create an emotional impression that “kids” are being gunned down at school or on playgrounds en masse getthefacts2026.com getthefacts2026.com. In reality, the risk is extremely age-skewed. As noted, over 70% of firearm deaths among minors occur in the 15–17 age bracket getthefacts2026.com – demographics more akin to young adults involved in street violence than to elementary school children. When one isolates the data for actual young children, a very different picture emerges: for example, in 2021, among children aged 1–9, the top causes of death were accidents (car crashes ~1,015 deaths, drowning ~800), while all firearm-related deaths in that age group were under 300 getthefacts2026.com. Guns are not the leading cause of death for children under 10 – not even close getthefacts2026.com. The leading causes for young kids remain unintentional injuries, such as vehicle accidents and suffocation. Thus, when gun-control advocates state “guns are the #1 killer of children,” they are relying on an expansive definition of “children” that includes older teens legally nearing adulthood. This combination, opponents argue, **“emotionally manipulates” the issue by suggesting toddlers and grade-schoolers face the highest risk, when in fact the problem is concentrated among late-teens caught in violent settings getthefacts2026.com getthefacts2026.com.
• The term “gun violence” and conflated statistics: Another critique is the use of aggregate “gun violence” statistics by anti-gun groups, which combine homicides, suicides, accidents, and mass shootings into one category. For instance, it is often cited that “over 40,000 people die from gun violence each year in the U.S.” – a figure that includes roughly 24,000 suicides (over half the total), about 18,000 homicides, plus several hundred accidental shootings and police shootings. Gun-rights advocates argue that mixing these together obscures the truth that very different phenomena are at play. Suicide, they note, is a mental health crisis; the U.S. suicide rate is comparable to other countries’, even where guns are less available (people substitute other means) ammoland.com. By bundling suicides (which outnumber gun homicides roughly 2:1) with murders, the raw “gun death” number is made to sound as if all are criminal violence victims ammoland.com. Similarly, including rare mass shooting casualties or accidents can inflate the sense of ubiquitous danger. Dave Kopel, a Second Amendment scholar, quipped that using *“gun violence” as a catch-all is a way to “triple the numbers of ‘victims’” and spur support for gun restrictions that would not address the majority of those deaths (like suicide) ammoland.com. In Connecticut, for example, lawmakers contrasted their low “gun violence” rate to other states as justification for strict gun laws – but as a journalist noted, that metric included suicides, which drive up the count even if homicide is low ammoland.com. The bottom line is that context matters: high “gun death” numbers are often cited to demand broad gun control, yet two-thirds of those deaths are self-inflicted, and many of the rest are concentrated in crime-heavy areas unaffected by new laws on lawful owners.
• Claims about efficacy of gun laws vs. crime: Advocacy groups on each side highlight data favorable to their position. Gun-control groups often argue that states with stricter gun laws have lower overall gun death rates, pointing to research correlating things like permit-to-purchase laws or safe storage mandates with lower suicide/homicide numbers. Gun-rights groups counter that such comparisons can be cherry-picked or fail to account for underlying crime rates. They note, for instance, that cities like Chicago and Washington D.C. – which have had very strict gun laws – suffered high gun violence for years, whereas many rural states with minimal gun regulations have low murder rates. A 2023 preliminary FBI report showed a significant drop in violent crime as the pandemic surge abated, even while more states adopted permit less concealed carry (29 states by 2023) pewresearch.org ammoland.com. This challenges simplistic narratives that “more guns equal more crime.” In fact, many proponents of the Second Amendment emphasize that lawful gun owners often deter or prevent crime. They cite studies estimating defensive gun uses in the hundreds of thousands to millions annually (though exact figures are debated). While this report focuses on homicide data, it is worth noting that criminological surveys of prison inmates have found a substantial number admit that the possibility of armed victims dissuaded them from committing some crimes gunfacts.info gunfacts.info.
• Focusing on criminals vs. broader gun bans: Perhaps the most fundamental point of divergence is what solution the statistics call for. Gun-control advocates, responding to any increase in “gun violence,” typically propose stricter gun regulations on sales or types of guns (e.g. bans on “assault weapons,” universal background checks, limits on magazine capacity, etc.). Gun-rights advocates argue that such measures target the wrong thing. Since, as shown, the vast bulk of gun crimes are committed with illegally possessed weapons by people with criminal histories, additional laws on legal purchasers are seen as ineffective “feel-good” measures. Instead, pro-2A groups urge focusing on the actual perpetrators: enforce existing laws against gun trafficking, lock up violent repeat offenders, and intervene in gang conflicts. They also highlight that very few lawful gun owners commit violent crimes, and that concealed carry permit holders, for example, have extremely low rates of firearm violations (often even lower than police officers’ offense rates). As a commentary in America’s 1st Freedom (an NRA magazine) put it, “Few appreciate how most of the counties in the U.S. have no murders… Murder isn’t a nationwide problem… any solution must reduce [murders in those small urban areas].”americas1stfreedom.org It concluded that the answer “isn’t more anti-gun laws that only affect law-abiding citizens.”americas1stfreedom.org americas1stfreedom.org Rather, solutions like gang intervention programs, targeted policing of hotspots, and community investment are needed. Even many big-city mayors are recognizing this: a 2023 meeting of Connecticut mayors (all Democrats) backed tougher penalties for repeat gun criminals after data showed most gun violence was driven by chronic offenders frequently out on bail ammoland.com ammoland.com. This represents a shift from a sole focus on gun hardware to addressing the criminal element.
• Statistical manipulations and framing: Both sides accuse each other of using statistics selectively. For instance, gun-rights writers have criticized groups like the Giffords Law Center for using broad age ranges or combining unlike categories. A recent example involved a JAMA Pediatrics study (June 2025) which purported to link a 2010 Supreme Court case (McDonald v. Chicago, which struck down handgun bans) to rises in “child firearm deaths” getthefacts2026.com getthefacts2026.com. Skeptics noted this was a tenuous connection at best – the rise in youth homicides after 2014 correlates more obviously with nationwide crime trends and policy changes (and, later, the 2020 pandemic) than with a court ruling years priorgetthefacts2026.com. In that case, it appeared the researchers’ framing was driven by a pre-existing narrative that loosening gun laws leads to child deaths, even if real-world data don’t clearly support that causation. On the flip side, pro-gun groups can also present data in partisan ways – for example, emphasizing certain favorable years or using per-capita rates when it suits their argument and raw numbers when it doesn’t. For the average voter, the key is to look at neutral data sources (FBI, CDC, DOJ) and see the trends in context. Those trends, as we’ve detailed, indicate that the worst gun violence is concentrated among young men involved in criminal activity in a limited number of urban locales, and that most other communities (even gun-heavy ones) are comparatively safe.

Conclusion: Toward Effective Solutions

The evidence suggests that America’s gun homicide problem is primarily a gang violence and urban poverty problem, not a simple “legal gun ownership” problem. Most guns used in shootings are obtained illegally, and most shootings are perpetrated by a small subset of high-risk individuals, often tied to gangs or ongoing criminal feuds. Meanwhile, tens of millions of lawful gun owners go about their lives without harming anyone. They are, in fact, more likely to be protectors (or potential victims) in their communities than perpetrators. 

This understanding has important policy implications. Strategies likely to reduce gun violence include: investing in impoverished neighborhoods to provide better economic and educational opportunities; funding violence intervention programs that mediate conflicts and offer pathways out of gang life; improving mental health and trauma services in communities plagued by violence; and ensuring that those who commit gun crimes face consistent consequences (so that repeat shooters are not quickly back on the street). Successful initiatives like Operation Ceasefire and Project Safe Neighborhoods have shown that focusing on the very small number of individuals and places driving violence can yield significant drops in shootingsammoland.com ammoland.com. By contrast, sweeping gun bans or broad-brush restrictions on lawful owners often have questionable impact on crime, since they do not address the who, where, and why of actual gun misuse. 

But the data make one thing clear: the face of gun violence in 2025 is a young man on an inner-city street corner, not a farmer with a rifle or a suburban target shooter. Tailoring our approach to address that reality – through a combination of community investment, targeted law enforcement, and honest statistics – will likely do more to save lives than any simplistic fix. As voters and citizens, understanding the true nature of gun violence is crucial. It enables us to support policies that get illegal guns off the street and offer youth better alternatives than gangs, without needlessly hampering the rights of responsible gun owners who are not contributing to the violence. 

In sum, solving gun violence is less about guns per se, and more about people, places, and social conditions. By focusing on the core drivers – gang dynamics, poverty, and untreated trauma – America can make strides in reducing shootings while respecting the rights of law-abiding citizens. The data supports this balanced, targeted approach americas1stfreedom.org mapreventgunviolence.org. Cutting through the rhetoric and looking at where and why gun violence really occurs is the first step toward crafting effective, lasting solutions that will make all of our communities safer. 

Sources:

1. Bureau of Justice Statistics – Source and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016 (January 2019): Key findings on how offenders obtained gunsbjs.ojp.gov bjs.ojp.gov.
2. USAFacts / ATF data (2017–2021): Crime gun tracing information, showing low percentages of guns from gun shows usafacts.org usafacts.org.
3. Crime Prevention Research Center (John Lott) – 2020 Murder Concentration Study: Analysis of FBI data illustrating that 1–2% of counties account for the majority of U.S. murdersamericas1stfreedom.org americas1stfreedom.org.
4. Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence – Community Violence Facts: Statistics on racial concentration of gun homicides and neighborhood disparities mapreventgunviolence.org mapreventgunviolence.org.
5. FBI National Gang Threat Assessment (2011) via Police Magazine: Quote that gangs are responsible for ~48% of violent crime on average, up to 90% in hotspotspolicemag.com.
6. Dean Weingarten, Ammoland (Feb 23, 2023): Citing Hartford arrest data (85% of gun criminals were repeat offenders) and David Kennedy’s findings on concentrated violenceammoland.com ammoland.com.
7. “Get the Facts” 2026 (Mass. Civil Rights Coalition): Breakdown of child vs teen firearm deaths and leading causes for young childrengetthefacts2026.comgetthefacts2026.com.
8. National Crime Prevention Centre (Public Safety Canada): Risk factors for youth gang involvement (poverty, family issues, etc.)publicsafety.gc.capublicsafety.gc.ca.
9. NRA’s America’s 1st Freedom (Feb 10, 2023): Summary article on murder localization and the relationship between gun ownership and crime ratesamericas1stfreedom.org americas1stfreedom.org.
10. Mass. Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence – Community Violence page: Acknowledgement of root causes (racism, poverty, trauma) and statistic that half of gun homicides are of Black men (7% of population)mapreventgunviolence.org mapreventgunviolence.org.

Citations

Source and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016

https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/suficspi16.pdfSource and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/suficspi16.pdfSource and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/suficspi16.pdfSource and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/suficspi16.pdfSource and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/suficspi16.pdfHere’s where guns used in crimes are bought | USAFactshttps://usafacts.org/articles/heres-where-guns-used-in-crimes-are-bought/Here’s where guns used in crimes are bought | USAFactshttps://usafacts.org/articles/heres-where-guns-used-in-crimes-are-bought/Gun Facts | Guns and Their Use in Crime, Sourceshttp://www.gunfacts.info/gun-policy-info/crime-and-guns/Youth gang involvement: What are the risk factors?https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yth-gng-nvlvmnt/index-en.aspxYouth gang involvement: What are the risk factors?https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yth-gng-nvlvmnt/index-en.aspxYouth gang involvement: What are the risk factors?https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yth-gng-nvlvmnt/index-en.aspxYouth gang involvement: What are the risk factors?https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yth-gng-nvlvmnt/index-en.aspxYouth gang involvement: What are the risk factors?https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yth-gng-nvlvmnt/index-en.aspxCommunity Violence | The Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence l Non Profit l Boston MAhttps://www.mapreventgunviolence.org/community-violenceYouth gang involvement: What are the risk factors?https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yth-gng-nvlvmnt/index-en.aspxYouth gang involvement: What are the risk factors?https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yth-gng-nvlvmnt/index-en.aspxRisk Factors | National Gang Centerhttps://nationalgangcenter.ojp.gov/spt/Risk-FactorsRisk Factors | National Gang Centerhttps://nationalgangcenter.ojp.gov/spt/Risk-FactorsCommunity Violence | The Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence l Non Profit l Boston MAhttps://www.mapreventgunviolence.org/community-violenceMental illness and violence: Debunking myths, addressing realitieshttps://www.apa.org/monitor/2021/04/ce-mental-illnessCommunity Violence | The Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence l Non Profit l Boston MAhttps://www.mapreventgunviolence.org/community-violenceNew Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/New Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/New Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/Community Violence | The Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence l Non Profit l Boston MAhttps://www.mapreventgunviolence.org/community-violenceFBI: Gangs Responsible for 48% of Violent Crime | Police Magazinehttps://www.policemag.com/special-units/news/15339766/fbi-gangs-responsible-for-48-of-violent-crimeFBI: Gangs Responsible for 48% of Violent Crime | Police Magazinehttps://www.policemag.com/special-units/news/15339766/fbi-gangs-responsible-for-48-of-violent-crimeMayors Discover Data Surprise: Most “Gun Violence” Involves Repeat Offendershttps://www.ammoland.com/2023/02/mayors-discover-data-surprise-most-gun-violence-involves-repeat-offenders/Mayors Discover Data Surprise: Most “Gun Violence” Involves Repeat Offendershttps://www.ammoland.com/2023/02/mayors-discover-data-surprise-most-gun-violence-involves-repeat-offenders/Community Violence | The Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence l Non Profit l Boston MAhttps://www.mapreventgunviolence.org/community-violenceCommunity Violence | The Massachusetts Coalition to Prevent Gun Violence l Non Profit l Boston MAhttps://www.mapreventgunviolence.org/community-violenceDebunking the Lie: “Guns Are the #1 Cause of Death Among Children” – Get The Facts 2026https://getthefacts2026.com/debunking-the-lie-guns-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-among-children/Debunking the Lie: “Guns Are the #1 Cause of Death Among Children” – Get The Facts 2026https://getthefacts2026.com/debunking-the-lie-guns-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-among-children/New Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/New Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/New Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/New Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/Debunking the Lie: “Guns Are the #1 Cause of Death Among Children” – Get The Facts 2026https://getthefacts2026.com/debunking-the-lie-guns-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-among-children/Debunking the Lie: “Guns Are the #1 Cause of Death Among Children” – Get The Facts 2026https://getthefacts2026.com/debunking-the-lie-guns-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-among-children/Mayors Discover Data Surprise: Most “Gun Violence” Involves Repeat Offendershttps://www.ammoland.com/2023/02/mayors-discover-data-surprise-most-gun-violence-involves-repeat-offenders/Mayors Discover Data Surprise: Most “Gun Violence” Involves Repeat Offendershttps://www.ammoland.com/2023/02/mayors-discover-data-surprise-most-gun-violence-involves-repeat-offenders/Mayors Discover Data Surprise: Most “Gun Violence” Involves Repeat Offendershttps://www.ammoland.com/2023/02/mayors-discover-data-surprise-most-gun-violence-involves-repeat-offenders/What the data says about gun deaths in the US | Pew Research Centerhttps://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/03/05/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-us/FBI Report Shows Dramatic Violent Crime Drop as 29 States Went …https://www.ammoland.com/2024/10/fbi-report-shows-dramatic-violent-crime-drop-as-29-states-went-permitless/Gun Facts | Guns and Their Use in Crime, Sourceshttp://www.gunfacts.info/gun-policy-info/crime-and-guns/Gun Facts | Guns and Their Use in Crime, Sourceshttp://www.gunfacts.info/gun-policy-info/crime-and-guns/New Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/New Study Shows Localized Nature of America’s Murder “Problem” | An Official Journal Of The NRAhttps://www.americas1stfreedom.org/content/new-study-shows-localized-nature-of-america-s-murder-problem/Mayors Discover Data Surprise: Most “Gun Violence” Involves Repeat Offendershttps://www.ammoland.com/2023/02/mayors-discover-data-surprise-most-gun-violence-involves-repeat-offenders/Debunking the Lie: “Guns Are the #1 Cause of Death Among Children” – Get The Facts 2026https://getthefacts2026.com/debunking-the-lie-guns-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-among-children/Debunking the Lie: “Guns Are the #1 Cause of Death Among Children” – Get The Facts 2026https://getthefacts2026.com/debunking-the-lie-guns-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-among-children/Debunking the Lie: “Guns Are the #1 Cause of Death Among Children” – Get The Facts 2026https://getthefacts2026.com/debunking-the-lie-guns-are-the-leading-cause-of-death-among-children/Mayors Discover Data Surprise: Most “Gun Violence” Involves Repeat Offendershttps://www.ammoland.com/2023/02/mayors-discover-data-surprise-most-gun-violence-involves-repeat-offenders/Mayors Discover Data Surprise: Most “Gun Violence” Involves Repeat Offendershttps://www.ammoland.com/2023/02/mayors-discover-data-surprise-most-gun-violence-involves-repeat-offenders/Source and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/suficspi16.pdfYouth gang involvement: What are the risk factors?https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yth-gng-nvlvmnt/index-en.aspx

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